We had a fun time over at Read/WriteWeb, getting out predictions for 2008. Checkout the original post for what other writers predict. Here is what I put down:
1. 2008 will be slow and cautious, with the first half dominated by recession or fear of recession.
2. Facebook is going to see the same kind of decline in popularity in 2008 that MySpace saw in 2007.
3. Digg is going to be acquired by one of the mainstream media conglomerates.
4. Implicit applications, which monitor our habits and automatically infer our likes, will rise.
The first one is obvious, because that’s all we hear on the radio these days. As I drive into the city and commentators from Bloomberg interview top fund managers, the first word out of their mouse is the ‘R’ word. Some of them say we are in it, some say we are heading into it and most of them are saying we will avoid it. Lets hope that the last group is right and we will recover in the second half of the year.
I am bearish on Facebook because it has been so overhyped in 2007. Yes it is interesting and powerful and unique, but it is not all that. I personally use it mostly to Twitter and I know that other members of AdaptiveBlue are not spending much time on it. People do not care about the zoo of applications on other people’s profiles and constant updates in news feed are becoming less and less relevant. All said and done, Facebook is not worth 15B valuation put on it in 2007 and in the next year, we will be seeing some adjustments, particularly as the concerns about “R” word will bring down the advertising spendings.
Digg has been in line to be acquired and in 2008 it will be. Not much more to say about that.
And then Implict Web and implicit applications. These new breeds of applications that observe our behavior and then just do the right thing at the right time are going to become more common. From financial applications like Wesabe and Mint to already a mega-hit, Last.fm, to new wireless applications that are going to launch next year we will see implicit applications rise.
AdaptiveBlue is going to be very much part of the implicit web. We are planning versions of the BlueOrganizer and SmartLinks that are heavily based on implicit behavior, that learn as you interact with them and connect you with the right information automatically. 2008 we will be big year of implicit for AdaptiveBlue.
Beyond the implicit theme, we have very specific plan and the roadmap for 2008. Here are pieces of this roadmap and vision that we can share now:
1. We will release an update of the BlueOrganizer in early January, which will automatically insert SmartLinks in every context.
2. Around end of February we are planning a BlueOrganizer Indigo - the next generation of the BlueOrganizer with innovative UI and other major improvements.
3. We are going to raise the next round of funding in first half of the year
4. We are going to expand the team and hire more engineers another designer and an evangelist.
5. And in the late spring there will be a big release that has not been named yet and we can not talk much about, but it will be one of the most interesting things that we have done to date. Stay tune for this one :)
2007 has been a huge year for us. We went from tiny team with sweet taste of success at DEMOfall to a funded startup that is considered to be a serious player in the pragmatic semantic technologies. We hit many milestones and delivered a lot of innovation. The things we built in 2007 will become strong pillars for the ambitious play that we plan for 2008.
With that, my final prediction is that we will have more and happier users. So many of you have using our products and have been very kind to us, that it is simply humbling. When we see our stuff used around the web, we know that we are on the right track. This makes us push even harder. We look forward to innovating and making people happy in 2008!


{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }
You guys seriously ROCK about the people! I’ll make a hedged bet (prediction):
2008 is going to be ab-so-tively great for AdaptiveBlue. More and more, people want more and more, and you guys are the ones to give it to them.
New product by June? I want it now!
ok… i’ll wait over here…..
man this line is long.
jon
Will there be a recession in ‘08, maybe. It seems more likely than not. The housing crisis really crippled the international economy and the fact that the Fed is lowering interest rates and pumping more cash into the economy tells me that they’re trying to soften the blow of nasty hits to come. I hope things don’t get bad, but it’s a reminder that we need to build our businesses on a sound foundation i.e. offer something of real value, solve a real problem, and you’ll be able to ride the wave with relative ease. Build a company and actually sell something. Let’s not make the same mistakes we did in ‘99.
Facebook is funny to me. I use it for business to find clients but was never inclined to use it personally. Facebook’s $15billion valuation is interesting, I don’t think it’s worth anywhere near that much. What I do think is that it validates its potential acquirers. For example, it’s valuable to Microsoft because it gets them in the social network game. Kind of like when Coke bought VitaminWater. You have an industry that’s losing market share so they decide to buy a company for 10x’s what it’s worth just to stay relevant. It’ll be interesting to see how they do with it. I see a lot more corporate activity in SecondLife than I do in Facebook. I’m not an expert and don’t use either that much, but it seems like corporations are establishing a large presence in SecondLife.
Best of success with your continued pursuit into implicit apps. I don’t use any of your products yet, but after reading your blog I’ve checked out your SmartLinks. Humans like patterns. We like when we can look at a bunch of things and identify a common string so we can categorize them. I think that’s why reporting dashboards became so popular in the business world. We like seeing trends and we like tools that help us do that. I see implicit apps doing that, given that they actually work. Google was masterful at figuring out EXACTLY what we’re looking for and giving it to us. It’s not a complex concept but pulling it off properly says a lot about the engineering team behind it.
Best of success in ‘08. If you’re looking for engineers give me a shout. I know most top-notch software companies don’t outsource (I know the Digg team outsourced) In our experience, good developers don’t have to be rocket scientists… they just have to be tenacious as hell.
Raza Imam
http://BoycottSoftwareSweatshops.com
Raza,
Thanks a lot for your thoughtful comments! I think you are spot on. Google is the example of something that works so well, which is why it became so dominant. It asks for very little input and then produces the results. Lets hope we can get there ;)
Alex
I think you’re wrong about facebook falling in popularity. Yeah, some people are getting annoyed with their marketing strategies but they know how to keep people tied into the system - and that’s the trick.
I would say that Digg is more likely to lose popularity to other, better organized, user-generated content sites.
I guess we’ll see. (I linked above to a site that’s offering a cash prize for predictions- a lot of social-networking site predictions there too)