I don’t get why people are surprised about Facebook traffic dip.
Yes, Facebook is good. Yes, they build the platform. Yes, people are excited. But how much can be excited about it and for how long?
As I’ve written recently on Read/WriteWeb there are various issues, including the whole information overload bit. But what is at play here, I think, is the simple law of economics. It goes like this:
When I am thirsty, I enjoy the first coke can. Then second I enjoy too, but less. The third I can drink, but the forth one is going to burst out. This law is called the law of diminishing marginal utility. And thats why the traffic is down.
When Facebook launched, we all came and played with it. Was it cool? Kind of. What is useful? Sort of. Was it indispensable? Not really.
How many people really need Facebook and want to use it? I know that I am using it, but I am busy and do not want to use it all the time. My wife never heard about it and nor did my parents. A bunch of people who are on MySpace are not likely to migrate.
This leaves my sister, who is one of the first core users, and all of her student friends.
Bottom line, it was for students and now techies tried it too and found it just okay. So there is just not THAT many people who need to be on it. Hence dipping.
{ 3 comments… read them below or add one }
I think a lot of the initial pop that drove huge numbers was the discovery that facebook enabled - I heard from a lot of friends that it was “too efficient at connecting you with old friends.”
So there was an explosion of connections and catch-ups, but once that period’s over (maybe now?) the site, to many, will revert to a monitor and upkeep tool. Monitor to see if any new old people are there to discover, upkeep to make sure things are in fine form.
That’s kind of a rhetorical question you ask. More than anything, people expected traffic to grow these last few months because it’s back to school time.
I’m right there with you and bearish on FB (especially at these valuations), but what was surprising even to a cynic was that it happened so quickly in the new school year. This was supposed to be it: platform and new apps over the summer, back to school in the fall, $15 billion valuation by winter.
I guess some people need to get their glasses checked.
Nate, those are good points, but I wonder if the back to school rush was capable of offsetting the cooling of the explosive growth that occurred when they opened up the service.